The Israeli detainees released by Hamas included Omer Shem Tov, who
kissed two of his captors, sparking a mixed reaction online [photo
credit: Al Qassam]
In preparation for the war’s looming restart Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared
an "emergency" in order to dispense with the normal 20-day
congressional review period for major arms transfers and to proceed at
once to transfer to Israel more than 35,000 2000-pound bombs, as well as
other weaponry. The move strongly suggests Israel has advised the US it
wishes to renew the war as soon as possible and the US is aligned with
this plan of continuing the genocide against the Palestinian people.
Yet at the same time as preparations are being made for war, in a
significant departure from longstanding U.S. policy the White House has
confirmed that it has engaged in direct negotiations with Hamas.
This bold, common sense and long overdue step appears to have been
influenced by the unanimous rejection of Trump’s extravagant Gaza
redevelopment plan by Arab states, as well as a growing realisation in
Washington that Israel’s preferred approach risks prolonging the
conflict indefinitely, exacerbating the hostage situation and
potentially triggering a broader regional war with Iran.
Israel strongly opposed
direct talks in the past, just as for decades it opposed Washington
engaging directly with the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). The
situation with Hamas is even more complex as since October 2023
Netanyahu has led a campaign vilifying those advocating what would, in
most other conflicts, be considered a pragmatic diplomatic approach.
News of the Trump administration’s would-be-secret direct negotiations only became public after the Israelis leaked the story to the media. US officials were said to have accused Israel of attempting to sabotage the talks.
Adam Boehler, Trump’s Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, told CNN's Jake Tapper he understood why the Israelis were upset, but “we are the United States. We are not an agent of Israel.”
The leak is a reminder that unlike President Biden, Trump is not
inherently aligned with Zionist interests. His primary focus is on
himself and securing a legacy-defining achievement, such as the Nobel
Peace Prize, and as his goals diverge from Netanyahu’s it is possible he
may be willing to exert pressure on Israel similar to his handling of
Ukraine i.e. with threats of cuts or restrictions to military aid.
Netanyahu would not even have to be fully Zelenskyed for there to be
significant repercussions. A single public rebuke chastising the Israeli
PM for ingratitude would alter the US-Israel dynamic and mark a
significant shift in the region’s power balance.
For now, the situation in Gaza remains at an impasse. Threats by
Israeli political leaders, like that from Nissim Vaturi, Deputy Speaker
of Israeli Knesset who recently said all adult men in Gaza should be
killed, continue to help build
the genocide case pending before the International Court of Justice but
the reality is that the people in Gaza have shown that whatever happens
next they are not leaving their land and so without a decisive change
in the balance of power what seems most likely is a return to the status quo antebellum,
a cycle of violence in which the IDF engages in periodic military
operations - often referred to by the Israelis as "mowing the lawn" - to
maintain control.
However, war is the locomotive of history and the world has moved on
since October 7 2023. As the economic and reputational costs mount, the
two factors Israel depends on most for its survival - Western support
and Arab states' supine betrayal of the Palestinians - look increasingly
beyond its ability to control.
While there is little indication Arab dictators are currently
reassessing their position to adopt a more assertive stance, they have
not embraced Trump's regional strategy and the social contract that once
existed between them and the US is dissolving. The unspoken rule that
they could avoid being destabilised if they just quietly acquiesced over
Palestine has been broken: now even after all the support they have
given Israel, Netanyahu’s reckless behaviour and expansionism is putting
them in jeopardy.
At the same time, the Western alliance is in turmoil. Trump is
unpredictable and has already shown how well-established allies can no
longer depend on US security guarantees. As geopolitical realities
evolve over Gaza, the road ahead for US-Israel relations could be far
more uncertain than many in Tel Aviv had previously assumed and it might
just be Netanyahu - not Hamas - who ends up being “OVER” and Israel
left with “HELL TO PAY LATER!”
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